An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction with a Latent Diffusion Model (LDM), a generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) method, to post-process 6-hourly precipitation ensemble forecasts and produce an enlarged generative ensemble that contains spatiotemporally consistent precipitation trajectories. These trajectories are expected to improve the characterization of extreme precipitation events and offer skillful multi-day accumulated and 6-hourly precipitation guidance. The method is tested using the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) precipitation forecasts out to day 6 and is verified against the Climate-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA) data. Verification results indicate that the method generated skillful ensemble members with improved Continuous Ranked Probabilistic Skill Scores (CRPSSs) and Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) over the raw operational GEFS and a multivariate statistical post-processing baseline. It showed skillful and reliable probabilities for events at extreme precipitation thresholds. Explainability studies were further conducted, which revealed the decision-making process of the method and confirmed its effectiveness on ensemble member generation. This work introduces a novel, generative-AI-based approach to address the limitation of small numerical ensembles and the need for larger ensembles to identify extreme precipitation events.

Deep generative models are capable of learning probability distributions over large, high-dimensional datasets such as images, video and natural language. Generative models trained on samples from p(x) ought to assign low likelihoods to out-of-distribution (OoD) samples from q(x), making them suitable for anomaly detection applications. We show that in practice, likelihood models are themselves susceptible to OoD errors, and even assign large likelihoods to images from other natural datasets. To mitigate these issues, we propose Generative Ensembles, a model-independent technique for OoD detection that combines density-based anomaly detection with uncertainty estimation. Our method outperforms ODIN and VIB baselines on image datasets, and achieves comparable performance to a classification model on the Kaggle Credit Fraud dataset. Knowing when a machine learning (ML) model is qualified to make predictions on an input is critical to safe deployment of ML technology in the real world.